David Viner Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia
It has been known anecdotally for some time that tourism is controlled by climate, in terms of the climate of the source and destination countries of these tourists. It has also been well documented that at local, regional and global scales tourism is a significant industry for which forecasts show increasing growth. By use of the Tourism Comfort Index we can ascertain that the Mediterranean has, up until now, been the location with the most suitable climate for tourism (in terms of the TCI). As a result of climate change this is now changing. We are seeing an increase in the frequency of months where the TCI is more suitable in North West Europe than the Mediterranean. As a result of the increasing suitability of NW Europe for tourism it can be expected that there will be an increase in tourism activity around the coastal zone. Couple this to changing demographics and socio-economic conditions and it is increasingly likely that the marine environment will be subjected enhanced pressures by tourism activity. This enhanced pressure will come in the form of: increased visitor numbers to the coastal zone; longer tourism season; increased tourism infrastructure (i.e. Hotels, attractions, marinas) increased waste (i.e. Sewage, solid waste); and increased environmental destruction.
Medium
We have a high level of confidence that the TCI is changing and producing more favourable conditions for tourism in North West Europe and decreasingly favourable conditions in southern Europe during the summer months. The Change in TCI in both cases is predominantly driven by increasing temperatures.
There are low levels of confidence in changes in the socio-economic conditions that will accompany an increasingly favourable climate for tourism.
Pinnegar, J.K., Viner D., Hadley D., Dye S., Harris M., Berkhout F. and Simpson M., (2006) Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems. Technical Report. CEFAS, Lowestoft 109pp
Viner D., Sayer M., Uyarra M., and Hodgson N., (2006) Climate Change and the European Countryside: Impacts on Land Management and Response Strategies. Report Prepared for the Country Land and Business Association., UK. Publ., CLA, UK 180 pages.
Amelung B. and Viner D. (2006) The sustainability of tourism in the Mediterranean: Exploring the future with the Tourism Comfort Index Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol 14 Nos. 4
Viner D. (2006) Tourism and its Interactions with Climate Change. Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol 14 Nos. 4
Viner D. and Nicholls S. (2006) Climate Change and its Implications for International Tourism. In Tourism Management Dynamics, Elsevier.
Lise, W. and Tol, R. S. J. (2002) Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand. Climatic Change 55(4), 429-449.
Maddison, D. (2001) In Search of Warmer Climates? The Impact of Climate Change on Flows of British Tourists. Climatic Change 49(1/2), 193-208.
Hamilton, J. M. (2003) Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists. Working Paper FNU-15 (revised), Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Centre for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg.
Please acknowledge this document as: Viner, D. (2006). Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in Marine Climate Change Impacts Annual Report Card 2006 (Eds. Buckley, P.J, Dye, S.R. and Baxter, J.M), Online Summary Reports, MCCIP, Lowestoft, www.mccip.org.uk
