The built environment can be split into three sections - the Oil and Gas Industry, the Renewables Industry and structures on the shoreline. Evidence for the impacts of climate change in this area has been drawn from wider information than the traditional peer-reviewed scientific literature.

The Oil and Gas industry is relatively data and experience rich in terms of monitoring and understanding the impacts of climate change on its structures through increased wave heights etc. It uses these measures within the design criteria of new structures.

The Renewables industry, whilst relatively immature, is developing the understanding of the time and space scales of physical processes that can act upon their structures. Particularly important is the changes in geomorphology impacting can the integrity of the inter-array and export cable routes.

In terms of sea-level rise, the impacts on shoreline structures are relatively well understood and built within the guidance produced by Defra in terms of recommend future sea levels. Some more subtle potential effects have been identified such as increased erosion around the toe of structures.

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'What is already happening' - Low

'What could happen in the future' - Low

Starting with the amount of evidence available, this is very variable. The Oil and Gas industry in the offshore zones of the North Sea is relatively data rich, whilst wave data from the inshore zones is still relatively sparse. However, this is slowly changing with initiatives such as WaveNet and the Channel Coastal Observatory. Assessing the level of agreement is also not straight forward as there is lack of robust statistical tools, the implications for wave climate for various scenarios has not been fully explored and regional variations have not been assessed (inshore Scottish waters is particularly lacking in wave data). Since the 2006 ARC, longer datasets have become available and some re-assessment has taken place but little overall progress can be made until the implications of future climate scenarios for the wave climate have been fully assessed (see below).

Therefore the overall assessment of the level of confidence is LOW for both 'What is happening' and 'What could happen'.

The evidence presented here is drawn from many sources rather than the peer-reviewed literature, as the majority of information in this area comes from the commercial sector itself. As such this article has not itself been peer-reviewed.

The importance of the impact of waves in this area suggests that the current low confidence in our scientific understanding of how storms and waves will change in the future is a key gap in knowledge. Some of the more subtle effects of sediment transport around structures is an area that may require further knowledge particularly in light of offshore renewables development and changes in coastal protection needs.

This topic is entirely related to commercial impacts of climate change.

Jon Rees  
Cefas, Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT