It has been known anecdotally for some time that tourism is controlled by climate, in terms of the climate of the source and destination countries of these tourists. It has also been well documented that at local, regional and global scales tourism is a significant industry for which forecasts show increasing growth. By use of the Tourism Climatic Index we can ascertain that the Mediterranean has, up until now, been the location with the most suitable climate for tourism (in terms of the TCI). As a result of climate change this is now changing. We are seeing an increase in the frequency of months where the TCI is more suitable in North West Europe than the Mediterranean. As a result of the increasing suitability of NW Europe for tourism it can be expected that there will be an increase in tourism activity around the coastal zone. Couple this to changing demographics and socio-economic conditions and it is increasingly likely that the marine environment will be subjected to enhanced pressure by tourism activity.  This enhanced pressure will come in the form of: increased visitor numbers to the coastal zone; longer tourism season; increased tourism infrastructure (i.e. hotels, attractions, marinas); increased waste (i.e. sewage, solid waste); and increased environmental destruction.

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• Annex: The effect of climate change on summer tourist season length in North-Western Europe (PDF, 850 KB)

What is happening now - High

What could happen in the future - Low

We have a high level of confidence (much evidence, high level of agreement) that the climatic conditions for tourism (e.g. expressed by the TCI) are changing and producing more favourable conditions for tourism in North West Europe and decreasingly favourable conditions in southern Europe during the summer months. The change in conditions (TCI) in both cases is predominantly driven by increasing temperatures.

There are low levels of confidence (little evidence, little agreement) in changes in tourism patterns that will result from an increasingly favourable climate for tourism.

• Detailed knowledge about the climate preference of tourists and the climate conditions required for specific types of tourism activities;
• Adaptation strategies that tourists, tour operators, local hotel owners and other actors may adopt;
• Possible influences of climate policies (e.g. resulting in higher transport costs) for tourism patterns.

• Decline in the numbers of UK outbound tourists visiting the Mediterranean during the summer months;
• Increase in domestic tourism within the UK;
• Increase in overseas tourists visiting Britain during the summer months for coastal (sun, sea, sand) tourism;
• Loss of infrastructure for tourism due to sea level rise or a high replacement/maintenance cost if storminess increases.

Dr Bas Amelung
Research fellow, International Centre for Integrated assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Universiteit Maastricht, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands

Dr David Viner
Principal Specialist Climate Change, Science and Evidence, Natural England, 60 Bracondale, Norwich, NR1 2BE, UK