Shipping

DfT; University of Plymouth

• Retreating Arctic sea ice is increasing the accessibility of the 'Northern Sea Route' between Europe and Asia for a limited period of the year. In September 2009, two cargo ships symbolically utilised the 'Northern Sea Route'.

• Sea-level rise of the magnitude projected by UKCP09 will increase the vulnerability of port operations to flooding.
• Future changes to wind speed and storminess could lead to reduced loads, route changes and restrictions for some ships.

Tourism

Oxford University

• Climate change is increasing the frequency of months when conditions are more comfortable for tourists in north-west Europe than in the Mediterranean.

• Warmer summers are expected to lead to an extended tourist season in the UK, especially at the coast, leading to increased revenues, new infrastructure, increased employment and enhanced watersport opportunities.
• Increased visitor numbers could overwhelm small coastal communities with implications for energy, water and waste management and environmental degradation.
• Any increase in coastal flooding, erosion and extreme events would be expected to increase damage to coastal communities, tourist accommodation and transport links, whilst also posing an increased safety risk to marine recreation activities.

Built Structures

ABPMer; Cefas

• 100-year analyses of both mean and significant wave heights are typically used to inform design criteria for offshore built structures such as oil installations. These studies reveal a high degree of natural variability in wave climate, which makes interpreting the impacts of climate change on offshore built structures very difficult.
• There is limited published evidence that climate change has led to changes in operational practices of offshore installations.
• Sea-level rise has affected the planning of coastal structures.

• Continued sea-level rise, changes to significant wave heights and any change to storminess could have an adverse impact on built structures.
• Any change in currents will affect structure erosion and patterns of scour both in coastal and offshore areas.
• Based on the UKCP09 projections only, built structures located in the southern North Sea and the Irish Sea and North Channel regions will be impacted the most by changes in winter significant wave height.

Fisheries

Cefas; Strathclyde Univerity; UEA

• There is evidence that locations where high catches of cod, haddock, plaice and sole occur, have moved over the past 80- 90 years. Climate change may be a factor but fishing and habitat modification have also had an important effect.
• Shifting distributions of fish, partly as a result of climate change are having an impact on the effectiveness of some fishery closure areas and on apportionment of fishery resources between neighbouring countries (e.g. mackerel in the northeast Atlantic).
• New fisheries have developed for a number of warmer-water species including seabass, red mullet, anchovy and squid. The stock biomass of adult seabass in the Western Channel has quadrupled since 1985 from 500t, to over 2000t in 2004/2005.

• The UK is expected to benefit from slightly (i.e. + 1-2% compared to present) higher fishery yields by 2050, although the Irish Sea and English Channel may see a reduction.
• Models suggest that cod stocks in the Celtic and Irish Seas might disappear completely by 2100, while those in the North Sea are expected to decline. Climate change has been reducing the maximum sustainable yield of cod in the North Sea by around 32,000t per decade.
• Very little work has been carried out on the social and economic implications of climate change for the UK fishing industry. Calculations suggest, however, that consequences will be significant for fishery-dependent communities in the north of Scotland and south-west England.
• Ocean acidification may pose a significant threat to the UK shellfish industry, but more research is required.

Aquaculture

Marine Scotland; AFBINI; Univeristy of Maine

• In the short term, climate change is unlikely to have a significant effect on UK-farmed marine fish (over 99% of which are cultivated in Scotland) and shellfish (47% in England and Wales; 33% in Northern Ireland; 20% in Scotland for 2008).

• Rising water temperatures could increase growth rates for some fish species (e.g. Atlantic salmon), but may also cause thermal stress for cold-water fish species (e.g. cod and Atlantic halibut) and intertidal shellfish.
• New species (e.g. sea bass, bream) may be able to be cultivated.
• Farmed species may become more susceptible to a wider variety of diseases as temperatures increase. Any increase in harmful algal and jellyfish blooms may lead to additional fish kills and closure of some shellfish harvesting areas.