What is happening now?

Shipping is aware of the potential impact that climate change will have on future opportunities for trading activities. With few exceptions shipping is a derived demand and is dependent on activities generated by other businesses.

Ports are increasingly becoming aware of the impact of climate change on their activities and of the effect of sea level rise, increasing storminess and morphological changes on port infrastructure, superstructure and equipment.

Retreating Arctic sea ice is increasing the accessibility of the 'Northern Sea Route' between Europe and Asia for a limited portion of the year. In September 2009, two cargo ships symbolically utilised the 'Northern Sea Route'.

 It is difficult to identify any further direct impacts of climate change on the shipping sector due to limited research.

What could happen in the future?

Ships can be built which are capable of supporting new ventures, for example those associated with the opening of the Arctic sea passages. If new opportunities are to be undertaken there will be the need for additional marine infrastructure development.

Ports are immobile and will need to take action in the medium term to mitigate impacts caused by climate change, particularly sea level change.  There will be a need to monitor navigation access to ports and make allowance for climate change impacts in all future plans.

Continued sea-level rise of the magnitude projected by UKCP09 will increase the vulnerability of port operations to flooding.

Future changes to wind speed and storminess could lead to reduced loads, route changes and restrictions for some ships.

What is already happening: Low

What could happen: Low

There is limited but growing research available on the direct impact of climate change on shipping.

The top priority knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in the short term to provide better advice to be given to policy makers are:

There is increasing knowledge on the impact of climate change on sea-level rise, both globally and around the coast of the United Kingdom. There are gaps in the wider aspects of knowledge of climate change impact - including change in trading patterns, extreme weather, commodity (food and water) distribution and population movement - all of which impact on shipping. There is the need for further study and research in these areas.

There is limited knowledge or research on the socio-economic impact of climate change on shipping.

On the positive side the development of new Arctic shipping routes could, (providing the necessary maritime support and safety infrastructure is established) provide economies in distance and reductions in both carbon emissions and cost. There are potential new trading opportunities to places where access will be improved as a result of ice diminution. New trades may also be developed including water, resulting from change in precipitation patterns and fossil fuels such as oil and gas.

A negative impact on established ports is considered possible by the increased frequency of storms and flooding caused by sea-level rise. Additional costs to mitigate the impact of storms and flooding through rebuilding of port infrastructure will have to be considered, if not the port may be faced with the potential reduction in the availability of berths, with consequent delays to shipping and increase in overall transport costs. Changes in morphology caused indirectly by climate change may require expensive remedial port infrastructure construction, including dredging.

The area of socio-economic impact of climate change could be a fruitful area of further study and research.

Watson R., and P. Wright (2010) Shipping in MCCIP Annual Report Card 2010-11, MCCIP Science Review, 6pp. www.mccip.org.uk/arc