It has been well documented that at local, regional and global scales tourism, and the success of tourism operators, is strongly influenced by climate and weather. Climate change is increasing the frequency of months when conditions are more comfortable for tourists in north-west Europe than in the Mediterranean. As a result, the tourism industry is expected to grow in the UK and especially along the coast. Warmer summers are expected to lead to an extended tourist season in the UK, especially at the coast, leading to increased revenues, new infrastructure, increased employment and enhanced watersport opportunities. Across the UK, coastal tourism and marine recreation is concentrated around different natural and man-made attractions. In southern England, there is preference for beach visits and sailing, in Wales tourists take part in adrenelin-filled water-based activities or more leisurely visits to National Parks and in Northern Ireland coastal tourism is focused around sea fishing. Whilst warmer summers and milder winters are predicted to bring more tourists to the UK, the changing climate is not all good news. Over the past few years, negative impacts as a result of changing climatic conditions have increasingly been observed. Sea surface temperature is increasing, sea levels are rising and the frequency and intensity of storm surges have been enhanced. As a result, coastal erosion is increasing and coastal communities are increasingly threatened by flooding and inundation events. Predictions suggest that the UK will continue to experience these climatic changes and the impacts will increasingly be experienced.

Any increase in coastal flooding, erosion and extreme events would be expected to increase damage to coastal communities, tourist accommodation and transport links, whist also posing an increased safety risk to marine recreation activities. It is essential to further identify the activities offered in the different locations and to understand the impacts of the changing marine climate on the UK. To ensure sustainable development of the sector, it is essential that policy makers understand the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on both tourism infrastructure and tourists' perception. Changes in the marine climate have already affected the coastal environment which may affect the attractiveness to some tourists. Further data collection and research is needed on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change that may affect coastal tourism such as the quality of the beaches (coastal erosion), the fish population (fishing tourism), the safety of the activity (sea level rise, extreme events) biodiversity (wildlife watching) and weather conditions (adventure sports).

Increased visitor numbers could overwhelm small coastal communities with implications for infrastructure, energy, water and waste management and environmental degradation. Understanding the carrying capacity of the tourist sites is also essential to manage the new flow of visitors and minimise the negative effect on the environment and socio-economics.

What is already happening: Medium

In the UK, research into the impact of climate change on coastal tourism and the impact on visitor numbers is a relatively recent discipline. However, changes in marine climate have been observed in a significant number of regions and countries. The relationship between climate change and the impacts on marine and coastal tourism is increasingly accepted by the scientific community and there is growing evidence of the general population shifting their tourism preferences in line with changes in climate.

What could happen: Medium

Research into the effect of changes in the marine climate and the impacts on tourism is ongoing. Due to uncertainty in the climate predictions and even greater uncertainty in how tourists and the tourism sector will adapt to climate changes, it is not possible to explicitly predict how the tourism sector will be affected. However, several models and research studies all suggest similar impacts which have also started to be observed in some regions and countries of the UK. The UK is expected to have increased numbers of visitors due to the air and sea temperatures become more stable and reliable during the summer months.

The top priority knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in the short term to provide better advice to be given to policy makers are:

1. The lack of detailed information on how tourists will respond to climate changes and the potential impacts this may have.  There is an assumption that tourism numbers in northern Europe will increase. It can also be assumed that with warmer summers domestic tourists will head to the, traditionally cooler, coastal areas. However, further research is required into visitors' preferences especially relating to the reasons for visiting certain locations.
2. The lack of knowledge on the adaptative capacity of the tourist sites and regions. An assessment of the adaptative capacity of the locations where the tourism sector takes place is essential to identify the vulnerability to marine climate change and develop an efficient action plan and preventive strategy. It will also allow operators to benefit from economic opportunities that may arise.
3. The lack of knowledge on the carrying capacity of tourist sites and attractions. With a predicted increase in visitor numbers and the potential degradation of sites and attractions, either through climate change or tourism, it is important to determine the carrying capacity to better manage tourists and minimize their impacts on the tourism resources and the environment.

The full paper already deals with socio economic and environmental impacts of climate change on tourism and marine recreation.

If the UK experiences milder winters and more reliable summers in line with the current predictions, the tourism season will be extended. This will provide increased opportunities for more year-round employment rather than the traditional seasonal work. However, extreme events may deter visitors and result in significant costs for tourism operators.

Simpson, M. (2010) Tourism in MCCIP Annual Report Card 2010-11, MCCIP Science Review, 11pp. www.mccip.org.uk/arc