Large-scale oceanic processes

PRESENT	FUTURE	CONFIDENCE
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) helps to maintain relatively mild temperatures in north-west Europe. Some observations suggest that the MOC has reduced in strength by up to 30% since the early 1990s. However, other studies disagree with this interpretation.	Most climate models anticipate some reduction in strength of the MOC due to increased freshwater influence in high latitudes, but continue to show overall future warming of the UK climate. An abrupt MOC shutdown leading to rapid cooling remains a high-impact, low-probability event. Our level of understanding is hampered by both model and observation limitations.	LOW

PRESENT

FUTURE

CONFIDENCE

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) helps to maintain relatively mild temperatures in north-west Europe. Some observations suggest that the MOC has reduced in strength by up to 30% since the early 1990s. However, other studies disagree with this interpretation.

Most climate models anticipate some reduction in strength of the MOC due to increased freshwater influence in high latitudes, but continue to show overall future warming of the UK climate.

An abrupt MOC shutdown leading to rapid cooling remains a high-impact, low-probability event. Our level of understanding is hampered by both model and observation limitations.

LOW

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MCCIP derived these headlines from the information supplied in the following reports, which provide a more comprehensive review of scientific understanding in this field.

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Large-scale oceanic processes

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