IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL FLOODING
Jason Lowe
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Executive Summary
Storm surges are short-lived increases in local water level, above that of the tide. They are driven by low atmospheric pressure and winds, typically in shallow seas. When they occur at or near a high tide large surges are liable to cause flooding. Previous extreme surge events, such as that during Winter 1953, have led to a considerable loss of life and damage to property around the coastline of the southern North Sea.
Future extreme flood events may become more common as a result of increases in local relative time average sea level or altered atmospheric storminess, which could change the storm surge characteristics. The predictions presented in the UKCIP02 analysis show the increase in the height of a flood event with a 50-year return period might be more than 1m during the 21st century at some locations. Most locations were predicted to experience a smaller increase. Comparison of the UKCIP02 results with other studies suggests that the pattern of increases in storm surge height is currently very uncertain and our confidence in being able to accurately predict the changes in extreme water level events is low. Research is underway to improve this situation by using ensembles of model simulations to better quantify the range of uncertainty.
Level of Confidence
Low
Key sources of Information
Please acknowledge this document as: Lowe, J. (2006). Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Flooding in Marine Climate Change Impacts Annual Report Card 2006 (Eds. Buckley, P.J, Dye, S.R. and Baxter, J.M), Online Summary Reports, MCCIP, Lowestoft, www.mccip.org.uk