Introduction

We are observing large changes in our marine environment that are driven in part by climate change and that are predicted to continue into the future. Mitigating and adapting to these changes will present significant challenges for decision makers. Providing sound scientific advice is an integral part of this process and is the primary goal of the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) and this, its first Annual Report Card (ARC).

The UK has set out a vision for “clean, safe, healthy, productive and biologically diverse oceans and seas”, yet as recently as 2005 the UK Government and devolved administrations’ publication “Charting Progress”, was unable to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the UK’s marine environment. MCCIP has come together to inform key decision makers about these issues.

Leading scientists from around the UK have contributed reports on the science of marine climate change. The key findings, which have been peer reveiwed by an expert panel, are summarised in the main sections of this web version of the report card. Full assessments from each contributor are available by clicking on the 'find out more' prompt beneath each topic header. Each of the scientists also rated their level of certainty in the statements for what is happening now and what could happen in the future by qualitatively assessing both the amount and consistency of the available information. This is presented as high, medium or low confidence. Please refer to the section below for a more detailed explanation.

The ARC begins with a summary of climate changes in the marine environment, setting the context for the subsequent assessments of impacts on our vision for an ecosystem that is healthy and biologically diverse; clean and safe; and (commercially) productive. These impacts could be good or bad, but that judgement needs further debate, and what is presented here should inform it.

Technical terms used in each of the individual reports are highlighted and linked to a glossary.

How sure are we?

	High confidence	HIGH
	Medium confidence	MEDIUM
	Low confidence	LOW
The square highlighted above represents a hypothetical topic where there is a 'moderate' amount of information but where the agreement between different sources of information is 'low'. This square falls into the orange area which gives us an overall confidence rating of 'low'.

Each contributing scientist has rated their confidence in the evidence presented. An overall confidence rating of high, medium or low is derived by qualitatively assessing both the amount and consistency of the available information. Where both are high we say we have high confidence about what is happening. But if EITHER are insufficient then we have a high degree of uncertainty and respond with an overall confidence of low.

This method of assigning confidence levels is based upon the framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We will be reviewing how best to communicate uncertainty to our end users for future publications.