IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NON-NATIVE SPECIES

Paul Elliott
Aquatic ecology Group, University of Cambridge

Supporting Evidence

A review of the models that can be used to predict the spatial spread of new invasions is presented by Hastings et al. (2004), while a concise summary of the factors affecting marine invasions is summarized by Ruiz et al. (1997). Theoretical work has shown that invasive species’ spread is a far more complex process than classical models have implied, because long-range dispersal can rapidly enhance range expansion. Many attempts to model the effects of climate change have often used “climate envelopes” to predict future changes in species distribution.  Such models often predict that climate change may reduce the suitability of current habitat, and these threats are most likely to be felt by species of limited dispersal ability (Hulme, 2005), i.e. non-invasive species.

Empirical work emphasises the effects of spatial heterogeneity, temporal variability, other species, and evolution on invasions (Hawkins et al., 2004). However, evidence remains scarce regarding the effects of directed environmental change on invasive spread. For many species, effects may be indirect and result from changes in the availability of natural resources and mutualistic and antagonistic interactions between species (Hulme 2005). The emergent patterns of marine invasion in North America reflect interactive effects of propagule supply, invasion resistance and sampling bias (Ruiz et al., 2000).

Many invasive species can be expected to follow the same biogeographical range shifts in response to changing environmental conditions as other marine organisms (Harley et al., 2006;  Fields et al., 1993; Keister et al., 2005; Perry et al., 2005; Southward et al., 1995). However, temperature changes can also differentially affect the growth and reproduction of native and invasive species.  For instance, Stachowicz et al. (2002) found for three introduced species of sea squirt at Avery point, Connecticut (USA), recruitment occurred earlier and with greater magnitude in years with warmer winters. In contrast, the timing of native recruitment was unaffected by temperature, and more recruitment happened in colder years. Further, in manipulative laboratory experiments, invasive ascidians grew faster than native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum temperatures observed in the summer. Together, these data indicate that global warming could speed and increase the recruitment and growth of invasive species, causing shifts in dominance relationships within communities.

Marine invasive species in the UK

A report by Eno et al. (1997) summarizes the distribution and invasive characteristics of 51 non-native species in British waters. These include 15 marine alga, 5 diatoms, 1 flowering plant and 30 invertebrates. There are generally no common patterns in the distribution of the invasive species, but there do seem to be more invasive species in the South and West Coasts of Britain, especially in the Solent (Zibrowius & Thorp, 1989) and along the Essex Coast (Utting & Spencer, 1992). Rates of spread vary between species, with 16 out of 51 species having spread to much of the British isles within 50 years. Most species originated from similar latitudes to the UK, especially the east coast of the USA (mainly fauna) and the Western Pacific (mainly flora). It is likely that most species made the journey to Britain via deliberate introduction (often in association with mariculture), or with transport on ships hulls, or in ballast water. The UK also often supplies Ireland with invasive marine species (Invaders of Ireland are summarized in: Minchin & Eno, 2002).

The most common individual reasons for the successful establishment of non-natives in British waters appear to be favourable physical factors, including a favourable temperature range (Eno et al., 1997). Invasions are more likely if sea water temperatures are elevated in relation to regional or local conditions. Warm water species, which include most of the introduced shellfish, may only breed under conditions of high water temperatures. Other factors contributing to successful invasions included a lack of predators, availability of unfilled niches, presence of food and the general hardiness of the species, but it appears that climate change could certainly enhance the spread of many established invasive species.

Some examples of UK marine invasive species which could be affected by changing water temperatures are summarized below:

• Hydroides dianthus and Hydroides ezoensis areannelid tubeworms which were introduced into Southhampton water in the 1970s. H. dianthus does not appear to have the temperature restrictions of other species of the genus hydroides (Zibrowius and Thorp, 1989), while the success of H.ozoensis has been attributed to long hot summers, which contribute to high phytoplankton levels within the water (Eno et al., 1997).
• Ficopomatus enigmaticus, isanother annelid tubeworm is thought to be at, or close to, its temperature minimum for maintaining populations and successful reproduction along southern coasts of Britain (Zibrowius & Thorp 1989; Thorp 1994). It can only survive in artificially heated Northern waters.
• The barnacle, Elminius modestus, can grow rapidly and withstand higher temperatures than native Balanus species and is now distributed all around the British mainland coast. Low water temperature is likely to restrict northwards spread of this species;  Elminius increased considerably in abundance in the Clyde following the warm summer of 1959 (Barnes and Barnes, 1960).
• The slipper limpet, Crepidula fornicata, may spread if water temperatures rise; minimum winter temperatures may be important in limiting the development of large populations in the north of Britain (Minchin, McGrath & Duggan 1995).
• The Leathery sea squirt, Styela clava , has spread extremely rapidly in Britain. It is found on the South and West Coasts of England as far North as Cumbria, and it is believed to be limited by a spawning temperature minimum of 15°C (Eno et al., 1997).
• The Jap weed, Sargassum Muticum, was first found in the English Channel in the late 1960s (Farnham, 1981) and spread rapidly along entire Channel coast (Hiscock & Moore 1986) and East coast up to Suffolk. Ideal conditions for growth are 25°C, but the species will grow at temperatures from 10°C to 30°C. Increasing temperatures could facilitate its spread Northwards. 
• Bonnemaisonia hamifera and Asparagopsis armata are red algae that likely to be limited in distribution by water temperature (Eno et al., 1997). Other Rodophyta species such as Antithamnionella ternifolia and Polysiphonia harveyi are very tolerant of temperature changes, and may out-compete native species.
• Codium Fragile, or green sea fingers, may be limited by limited by cool summer temperatures, particularly on the east coast (Hardy, 1981).
• It is also worth noting that many estuarine species have been spreading rapidly through Britain, such as the Chinese Mitten Crab, Eriocheir sinensis   (Herberg et al., 2005), the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha (Aldridge et al., 2004) and the Asian clam, Corbicula Fluminae (pers.obs). There is certainly some evidence that zebra mussel larvae are developing more rapidly than historically documented, which could be related to climate change (Elliott, 2005).

The most recent invasive species in the UK include the polychaete Marenzellaria viridis and the oriental shrimp Palaemon macrodactylus (Mark Davison, Thames Environment agency, pers.comm.) Future invasions of Britain could include the shellfish-poisoning dinoflagellate Gymnodinium catenatum, and the brown alga Undaria pinnatifada (Minchin & Eno, 2002).

With sufficient water warming, it is even possible that some of the more notorious global warm-water invasive species may enter British waters, such as the Northern Pacific Sea Star (Asterias amurensis), Caulerpa Seaweed (Caulerpa  Taxifola), and the American Comb Jelly (Mnemiopsis leidyi). It is clear that detailed risk assessments and contingency plans need to be urgently prepared for future invaders and that these must be informed by detailed monitoring of the effects of climate change on the dispersal and growth of established invaders. Further, the question of how climate change will interact with other ecological pressures (such as invasive species or habitat fragmentation) to create synergistic effects also needs to be considered (Sutherland et al., 2006).

Please acknowledge this document as: Elliot, P. (2006). Impacts of Climate Change on Non-Native Species in Marine Climate Change Impacts Annual Report Card 2006 (Eds. Buckley, P.J, Dye, S.R. and Baxter, J.M), Online Summary Reports, MCCIP, Lowestoft, www.mccip.org.uk

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