Climate change: impacts on our vision for commercially productive seas

Photo: © Crown Copyright 2006, used by permission of Cefas Present understanding of climate change impacts on commercial marine activities is limited, but the future seems certain to present both major challenges and some new opportunities. It appears likely that declines in the populations of commercial cold-water fish will continue although warm water species could provide new opportunities for both fisheries and aquaculture. Reductions in polar ice cover may increase the Arctic shipping season but elsewhere changes to storminess and waves could impinge on shipping loads and place ports, aquaculture sites and other marine structures at risk. Ports and other coastal structures may also be at increased risk from sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Conditions for tourism in our coastal zone are becoming increasingly favourable but significant effort is required to exploit available opportunities and manage associated environmental pressures.
Photo: © Crown Copyright 2006, Reproduced by permission of Cefas

	WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING	WHAT COULD HAPPEN	CONFIDENCE
Shipping Find out more... MCCIP	Unknown. No studies currently available.	Major risks to ports from flooding and physical damage associated with sea-level rise and storminess. Future changes in wind speed and storminess could lead to reduced loads, route changes and restrictions for some ships. Continued decline of Arctic sea-ice could open up new shipping routes and increase the Arctic navigation season from Europe to Asia from 20 – 30 to 90 – 100 days per year within the next century.	LOW
Tourism Find out more... CRU, MCCIP	Climate change is increasing the frequency of months when conditions are more comfortable for tourists in north-west Europe than in the Mediterranean.	The north-west European coast will be subject to enhanced pressure from tourism (for example, through a longer holiday season). Sea-level rise, increased storminess and changes in rainfall patterns may have an influence on infrastructure and desirability of holiday locations.	MEDIUM
Built structures Find out more... Cefas	Unknown but allowances for annual rates of sea-level rise are accounted for in the planning of coastal structures.	Future risks to offshore structures from changes in the frequency, intensity and direction of wave heights are unknown.	LOW (for waves)
Fisheries Find out more... Cefas	Warm-water commercial species such as sea bass, red mullet and tuna are becoming more commonplace in our seas. Cold-water species, such as cod, have declined, with a possible link suggested between warmer sea temperatures and reduced populations of fish at the southern limit of their distribution range. (Fishing remains the main pressure on commercial fish stocks.)	Continued decline in abundance and northward retreat in distribution of commercial cold-water species. Changes to ocean circulation might affect movement of young fish from spawning grounds to nursery areas. New species might become available for commercial exploitation. Climate change impacts on primary productivity will affect fisheries, but they are not yet well understood.	MEDIUM
Aquaculture Find out more... FRS	Unknown. No studies currently available	Rising water temperatures could increase growth rates for some species, but may cause thermal stress for cold-water species and intertidal shellfish. New species may be cultivated. Temperature change will affect diseases of farmed species and thermal stress is likely to increase disease susceptibility. Storm damage to farms may increase escapes and result in fewer suitable areas. Occurrence of harmful algal and jellyfish blooms may change, leading to fish kills and closure of shellfish harvesting areas.	LOW

WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

CONFIDENCE

Shipping

Find out more...

MCCIP

Unknown. No studies currently available.

Major risks to ports from flooding and physical damage associated with sea-level rise and storminess.

Future changes in wind speed and storminess could lead to reduced loads, route changes and restrictions for some ships.

Continued decline of Arctic sea-ice could open up new shipping routes and increase the Arctic navigation season from Europe to Asia from 20 – 30 to 90 – 100 days per year within the next century.

LOW

Tourism

Find out more...

CRU, MCCIP

Climate change is increasing the frequency of months when conditions are more comfortable for tourists in north-west Europe than in the Mediterranean.

The north-west European coast will be subject to enhanced pressure from tourism (for example, through a longer holiday season).

Sea-level rise, increased storminess and changes in rainfall patterns may have an influence on infrastructure and desirability of holiday locations.

MEDIUM

Built structures

Find out more...

Cefas

Unknown but allowances for annual rates of sea-level rise are accounted for in the planning of coastal structures.

Future risks to offshore structures from changes in the frequency, intensity and direction of wave heights are unknown.

LOW

(for waves)

Fisheries

Find out more...

Cefas

Warm-water commercial species such as sea bass, red mullet and tuna are becoming more commonplace in our seas.

Cold-water species, such as cod, have declined, with a possible link suggested between warmer sea temperatures and reduced populations of fish at the southern limit of their distribution range. (Fishing remains the main pressure on commercial fish stocks.)

Continued decline in abundance and northward retreat in distribution of commercial cold-water species.

Changes to ocean circulation might affect movement of young fish from spawning grounds to nursery areas.

New species might become available for commercial exploitation.

Climate change impacts on primary productivity will affect fisheries, but they are not yet well understood.

MEDIUM

Aquaculture

Find out more...

FRS

Unknown. No studies currently available

Rising water temperatures could increase growth rates for some species, but may cause thermal stress for cold-water species and intertidal shellfish.

New species may be cultivated.

Temperature change will affect diseases of farmed species and thermal stress is likely to increase disease susceptibility.

Storm damage to farms may increase escapes and result in fewer suitable areas.

Occurrence of harmful algal and jellyfish blooms may change, leading to fish kills and closure of shellfish harvesting areas.

LOW