Shipping

Plymouth University

WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING	WHAT COULD HAPPEN
There are no academic studies available on the direct impacts of climate change on shipping, although numerous industry and media reports have been published in the past year. Climate change mitigation measures are having an indirect impact; in the short term, regulation of greenhouse emissions will arise through international agreement and a Greenhouse Gas Indexing Scheme for ships is being developed. Fuel efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are driving a push for new propulsion and hull technology.	Major risks to ports are likely to arise from flooding and physical damage associated with sea-level rise and severe storms. Future changes in wind speed and storminess could lead to reduced loads, route changes and restrictions for some ships. Continued decline of Arctic sea-ice could extend accessibility to high-latitude shipping routes, for example increasing the Arctic navigation season from Europe to Asia from 20–30 days to 90–100 days per year within this century.

WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

There are no academic studies available on the direct impacts of climate change on shipping, although numerous industry and media reports have been published in the past year.
Climate change mitigation measures are having an indirect impact; in the short term, regulation of greenhouse emissions will arise through international agreement and a Greenhouse Gas Indexing Scheme for ships is being developed.
Fuel efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are driving a push for new propulsion and hull technology.

Major risks to ports are likely to arise from flooding and physical damage associated with sea-level rise and severe storms.
Future changes in wind speed and storminess could lead to reduced loads, route changes and restrictions for some ships.
Continued decline of Arctic sea-ice could extend accessibility to high-latitude shipping routes, for example increasing the Arctic navigation season from Europe to Asia from 20–30 days to 90–100 days per year within this century.

Shipping and the ports industry are involved in the most international of industries. Over 90% of world trade, by mass, is carried by shipping.

Understanding of climate change impacts on shipping is very limited with little in the traditional scientific literature. Here we present evidence drawn from a wider body of information (including non-scientific literature, speeches technical documents and news articles) to discuss the wide range of issues facing this sector.

At a national level the UK Department for Transport states that “no specific research has been done into the impact of climate change on shipping. However discussions with the Maritime and Coastguard Agency suggest that increased storminess and sea levels / reduction in polar ice are probably the most important factors.” The major impacts of climate change on ports are likely to be floods, infrastructural damage, and operational disruption. Ports will need to consider climate change in light of new infrastructure which may have a life span into the next century.

Shipping is an international service industry which responds to the derived demand. Its major assets operate in the global economy and are subject to economic cycles. As such one of the main impacts of climate change upon shipping is the need for shipping to contribute to the mitigation of climate change, along with the ongoing impacts of climate change on the global economy. The role of the regulator, the responsible ship owner and the market interact to make progress, where technological advances and uptake will be key.

Full review article (with references)

Download PDF (235 KB)

Confidence assessments

‘What is already happening’ – Low

‘What could happen in the future’ - Low

Research on the impacts of climate change on shipping is extremely limited, the evidence presented here is drawn from many sources rather than the strictly peer-reviewed literature. As such this article has not itself been peer-reviewed and MCCIP have given the confidence as low for both present and future in the ARC to take account of this.

Knowledge gaps

There are many knowledge gaps. The impact of climate change on shipping is wide and tends to be speculative. The area is one which requires further study and research.

Commercial impacts

This topic is entirely concerned with commercial aspects of climate change in the marine environment.

Authors

Dr Paul G Wright
Associate Director, University of Plymouth Marine Institute, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA