Improving science base
Our understanding of climate change impacts on our seas and oceans is less advanced than for terrestrial environments, but the scientific knowledge base is developing rapidly.
At the local scale, improvements in model resolution are helping to provide more realistic interpretations of model output at ever-finer resolutions. Of particular note to marine climate change studies will be the development of the next generation of UKCIP marine scenarios, whose potential applications will be fully explored by MCCIP when they are made available.
Through the publication of the IPCC 4th Assessment report and on into the next generation of UKCIP, marine scenarios will move towards the high resolution required to understand marine ecosystem processes. It is anticipated that MCCIP will be able to influence the outputs of the new marine climate scenarios in UKCIPnext
Improvements in our understanding of global and hemispherical scale ocean processes will also aid our interpretations of marine environmental change at regional scales. Basin scale processes (e.g. those encompassing the entire North Atlantic) have important consequences for the UK marine environment, for example through oceanic heat transfer and large scale atmospheric processes.
Projects such as RAPID, OFSOD, DAMOCLES and the IPY will improve our understanding of global and hemispheric scale ocean processes which influence the marine environment at the regional scale.
Our understanding of physical changes in the marine environment, particularly for such aspects as sea surface temperature and sea level changes, is at a considerably more advanced stage than for the impacts of these changes on marine ecosystems. For example, our understanding of climate change impacts on wide ranging aspects of our marine environment (e.g. marine mammals, pollution dispersal and shipping) is very much in its infancy and there is little published material currently available. Whilst communicating new developments in our understanding on such issues will be a strong part of our remit, highlighting those areas where knowledge gaps continue to exist will be equally as significant, helping to focus attention on areas where our understanding is currently weak.
It is expected that over the first years of MCCIP the available resources available to examine climate change impacts will improve significantly. MCCIP will act as a forum to communicate scientific developments on all aspects of marine climate through our website, practical workshops, newsletter and the annual report card.