UK marine and coastal projections

Introduction

The latest projections of the UK's future climate, UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09), were launched on June 18th, 2009. The marine component of UKCP09 is significantly more advanced than in its predecessor, UKCIP02, and for the first time a standalone marine and coastal report is included, and marine variables such as sea temperature are now part of the user interface.

These UK marine projection pages are intended to highlight some of the key findings from UKCP09 to help the wider marine and coastal community get the most out of the projections. Quick links to some of the most immediately relevant sections in the marine and coastal report (including maps) are provided, aswell as links to the user interface.

The two links below provide short, 'at-a-glance' summaries from the MCCIP communications team that explain more about what the marine and coastal projections are, what's included and why they are important for the UK marine and coastal community.
 

 
UKCP09 and MCCIP

Seasonal mean sea surface (SST) temperature change for Autumn, comparing the recent past (1961-1990) to the future (2070-2098), under Met Office regional climate model forcing.
Projected autumn sea surface temperature
change (°C) by end of century

Input from MCCIP to UKCP09

MCCIP and UKCIP have close ties, with UKCIP sitting on the MCCIP steering group and the MCCIP secretariat being part of the UKCIP user group. For UKCP09, the MCCIP steering group provided advice on user requirements and graphical outputs for the marine and coastal projections, and members of the MCCIP steering group reviewed the marine and coastal report. The MCCIP secretariat scientific lead was also part of the drafting team for the marine and coastal report.

Relative sea level change (cm) around the UK over the 21st century. This map shows estimates of relative sea level change (i.e. sea level rise plus vertical land movements) by 2095, using the 'central' estimate under a medium emissions scenario.
Central estimate of relative sea level change (cm) 
by 2095 (medium emission scenario)

 
UKCP09 in the  MCCIP report card

The last full MCCIP report card, launched in mid-2010 included a 'first look' at the UKCP09 marine and coastal projections. As the full user interface wasnt available to use for that card, we will be looking to make more use of these outputs in future report cards for all of  the 30 topics covered.

All images © UK Climate Projections 2009